The Design Thinking Playbook
Lewrick · Link · Leifer
Mindful digital transformation of teams, products, services, businesses and ecosystems.
Design Thinking for Humanity › Templates › Futures Thinking
Futures Thinking · book page 88
Ladder of Inference
A way to trace how data turns into beliefs and actions, step by step.
When to use it
When conclusions feel obvious, when opinions clash, or when you check an AI output.
How to start
- Start with the conclusion or action.
- Walk down the ladder: beliefs, assumptions, interpretations, selected data.
- Go back to the observable data and climb up again together.
The book explains the tool step by step, with examples from the case study The Living Soil Mandate.
More Futures Thinking templates
Futures Thinking · p. 90Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)A method that looks beneath a problem on four layers: litany, systemic causes, worldview and myth.Futures Thinking · p. 92Scenario Planning & the 2x2 MatrixFour plausible futures built from the two most critical uncertainties.Futures Thinking · p. 96Pattern RecognitionA tool to find recurring patterns across signals, cases and data.
Get the book
Order on AmazonDesign Thinking for Humanity, Wiley 2026: all five lenses, every tool explained step by step.
The series
More books from the series.
The Wiley design thinking series: more than 3 million readers in over 25 languages.
New
The Design Thinking Library
Five books in one box: mindset, methods, metrics, growth and purpose. The complete methodology for the full innovation lifecycle.
The Design Thinking Toolbox
Lewrick · Link · Leifer
A guide to mastering the most popular and valuable innovation methods.
Design Thinking for Business Growth
Lewrick
How to design and scale business models and business ecosystems.
Design Thinking and Innovation Metrics
Lewrick
Powerful tools to manage creativity, OKRs, product and business success.
The Design Thinking Life Playbook
Lewrick · Thommen · Leifer
Empower yourself, embrace change and visualize a joyful life.