The Design Thinking Playbook
Lewrick · Link · Leifer
Mindful digital transformation of teams, products, services, businesses and ecosystems.
Design Thinking for Humanity › Templates › Futures Thinking
Futures Thinking · book page 92
Scenario Planning & the 2x2 Matrix
Four plausible futures built from the two most critical uncertainties.
When to use it
When the future is uncertain and you need strategies that work in more than one world.
How to start
- Choose two critical, independent uncertainties as axes.
- Describe the four resulting worlds vividly.
- Test your strategy in each and identify a preferable future.
The book explains the tool step by step, with examples from the case study The Living Soil Mandate.
More Futures Thinking templates
Futures Thinking · p. 96Pattern RecognitionA tool to find recurring patterns across signals, cases and data.Futures Thinking · p. 98SensemakingA shared process to make meaning out of complex and ambiguous information.Futures Thinking · p. 100Futures WheelA visual map of first-, second- and third-order consequences of a change.
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